The excitement around investing in cannabis is obvious and undeniable. It shows up in headlines on a daily basis, and investors agree that the time to get involved is before federal legalization normalizes returns, not after. But when will that be? Most will readily say that legalization is going to happen, but very few can tell how or when it will happen. Still fewer can coherently explain the confused, fractured legal status of cannabis at the state level or the many nuanced ways cannabis could experience a de facto legalization that would stimulate huge growth in related capital markets. In this article we outline the myriad political pathways cannabis could take towards legalization, and just how soon it could happen.
The political mechanism most often associated with cannabis legalization would be an amendment to the Controlled Substances Act of 1970
Officially, the federal government of the United States considers marijuana to be a "Schedule I” controlled substance—something with “no accepted medical use” and a high possibility of abuse and physical or psychological dependence. That one legal designation alone has far-reaching consequences on marijuana operations because it restricts not only human consumption of the plant, but also industrial uses of the plant material and research into further applications. In order to change this, Congress would need to amend this part of this law.
An amendment to the law could take several forms, but regardless it would have to first be drafted and introduced in either the House or Senate by a sponsor. From there, the bill would make its way through various committees as lawmakers agreed on the specific statues within the law.
Once the bill clears committee, it would need to be brought to the floor of its chamber of origin for debate and full vote. Assuming politicians in the original chamber agreed on the letter of the law and it passed, the bill would then go to the other chamber of congress for the same process. This can often be a drawn-out affair as politicians use this time to introduce their own pet projects and engage in horse-trading between their respective constituencies. Eventually, after the bill passes both houses of congress, it would go to the president’s desk for his signature or veto.
Although this is the most traditional way cannabis could experience legalization, it could also be the most drawn-out, vs something more benign and commerce-related such as banking reform or strengthening the tenth amendment.
The second pathway towards federal legalization is more gradual: as an increasing number of states legalize cannabis each passing year, legislation that like the STATES act currently making its way through congress would serve as a de facto form of federal legalization.
States are technically able to—as many have—pass their own cannabis legalization measures. The resulting legal contradiction between state and federal law places this issue firmly under the purview of the tenth amendment.
In simple terms, the tenth amendment says that any powers not explicitly outlined by Congress are left to the states and to the people—in other words, it defines the separation of powers between federal and state government. In states where cannabis is legal and thus in direct contradiction of federal law, the tenth amendment is naturally at the forefront of the discussion.
So what is the federal government’s policy on states where cannabis is legal? For the answer to that question, we can look to a memorandum issued on August 29th, 2013 by then-Deputy U.S. Attorney General James M. Cole during the presidency of Barack Obama. The memo, nicknamed the Cole Memo for its original author, stated that given its limited resources, the Department of Justice would not enforce federal marijuana law in states that had legalized its use in some form, essentially giving state-legal cannabis business the green light to operate where in compliance with state law.
However, the Cole memo technically expired after the 2016 election took place and Jeff Sessions became Attorney General, which leaves us in the grey area we are today and exemplifies the shifting sands cannabis entrepreneurs and investors find themselves on.
In response to the Cole Memo’s expiration, cannabis advocates led by Colorado senator Cory Gardner drafted the “Strengthening the Tenth Amendment Through Entrusting the States” act , which would formally recognize the legality of cannabis businesses operating in states where it was legal and prevent the federal government from harassing them or shutting them down—essentially codifying the Cole memo into law.
The effect of this would be to standardize the federal government’s policy towards cannabis in a way that would transcend the changing political winds and shifting partisanship from administration to administration. Even more promising is the fact that President Trump, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and Attorney General William Barr have all voiced their endorsement for the STATES act.
Even without the passage of the STATES act or an amendment to the Controlled Substances Act, cannabis capital markets could experience a windfall on the heels of cannabis banking reform, which would allow federally-chartered financial institutions to invest in the state-legal cannabis industry, already generating annual revenues of $10 billion in the US alone.
The current operations of legal cannabis businesses could almost be mistaken for their black-market predecessors insofar as they are forced to operate in cash. Current federal legislation exposes any banks that do business with cannabis companies to the risk of losing their federal charter(s), and cannabis companies are unable to access the services of major payment processors like Visa, Mastercard and PayPal. The effect of having all this cash on hand quickly becomes a burden shared by many—not only do cannabis companies have to invest heavily in security that other businesses do not need, the IRS has even had to build “cash rooms” to accommodate the sheer volume of cash inflows made by cannabis companies paying their taxes. Federal legislators are finally realizing just how asinine this is.
Just last month, the House Financial Services Committee voted 45-15 in favor of a bill that would prevent the federal government from revoking the federal charter of banks and credit unions for accepting cannabis businesses, including an amendment extending those protections to insurers. Known as the SAFE banking act, the bill boasts 165 co-sponsors, including 17 Republicans. In addition to the efforts in the House, Sens. Cory Gardner (R-Colo) and Jeff Merkely (D-Ore.) filed companion legislation in the Senate that would shield banks that hold accounts for state-legal cannabis businesses.
The SAFE Banking Act has broad support, including from the American Bankers Association (ABA), Credit Union National Association (CUNA), Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA), Law Enforcement Action Partnership (LEAP), the Electronic Transactions Association (ETA), the National Cannabis Industry Association (NCIA), Mid-Size Bank Coalition of America (MBCA), The Real Estate Roundtable, and various U.S. trade associations such as the American Land Title Association (ALTA), American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA) and the Reinsurance Association of America (RAA). Paypal, Constellation Brands, and 18 other corporations are engaging in lobbying efforts to support the bill as well. On top of all that, just last week, financial regulators from 25 states, both red and blue, signed a letter to congress urging them to support the measure:
It’s clear that there are many different legal mechanisms that would open up the cannabis markets, both for consumer and retail industry and the financial services and business-to-business economy. What many do not fully appreciate is the sheer amount of activity around these reforms, both on Capitol hill and in capitol rotundas at the state level across the country.
While these developments are most definitely exciting, they underscore the fact that the window of time in which you may realize outsized returns may be quickly narrowing. KEY Investment Partners believes cannabis investment managers need to be nimble and ready to act, as evidenced by our location in Colorado—the most established and mature state-legal cannabis economy in the country. We believe federal legalization to be as close as one election cycle away.
For more information on how to get involved, click the link at the bottom of the page and find out just how close these returns could be.